04 July 2009

A Letter From a True Tea Party Patriot


In the spirit of the hateful rhetoric coming from the right wing during our nations Independence Day, let's play a little game of guess who wrote this:


The government is afraid of the guns people have because they have to have control of the people at all times. Once you take away the guns, you can do anything to the people. You give them an inch and they take a mile. I believe we are slowly turning into a socialist government. The government is continually growing bigger and more powerful, and the people need to prepare to defend themselves against government control.

Taxes are a joke. Regardless of what a political candidate “promises,” they will increase. More taxes are always the answer to government mismanagement. They mess up. We suffer. Taxes are reaching cataclysmic levels, with no slowdown in sight. Go ahead, take everything I own; take my dignity. Feel good as you grow fat and rich at my expense; sucking my tax dollars and property, tax dollars which justify your existence and pay your federal salary. Do you get it? By doing your evil job, you put me out of work. All you tyrannical mother fuckers will swing in the wind one day for your treasonous actions against the Constitution of the United States. Remember the Nuremberg War Trials. “But…but…but…I only followed orders…” Die, you spineless cowardice bastards.

I reached the decision to go on the offensive - to put a check on government abuse of power, where others had failed in stopping the federal juggernaut running amok. I wish to use the words of Justice Brandeis dissenting in Olmstead to speak for me. He wrote, “Our government is the potent, the omnipresent teacher. For good or for ill, it teaches the whole people by its example.”

Those who betray or subvert the Constitution are guilty of sedition and/or treason, are domestic enemies and should and will be punished accordingly. It also stands to reason that anyone who sympathizes with the enemy or gives aid or comfort to said enemy is likewise guilty. I have sworn to uphold and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic, and I will. And I will because not only did I swear to, but I believe in what it stands for in every bit of my heart, soul and being. I know in my heart that I am right in my struggle. I have come to peace with myself, my God and my cause. Blood will flow in the streets…Good vs. Evil. Free Men vs. Socialist Wannabe Slaves. Pray it is not your blood, my friend. Is a Civil War imminent? Do we have to shed blood to reform the current system? I hope it doesn’t come to that. But it might.

A man with nothing left to lose is a very dangerous man and his energy/anger can be focused toward a common/righteous goal. What I’m asking you to do, then, is sit back and be honest with yourself. Do you have kids/wife? Would you back out at the last minute to care for the family? Are you interested in keeping your firearms for their current/future monetary value, or would you drag that ‘06 through rock, swamp and cactus…to get off the needed shot? In short, I’m not looking for talkers, I’m looking for fighters…And if you are a fed, think twice. Think twice about the Constitution you are supposedly enforcing (isn’t “enforcing freedom” an oxymoron?) and think twice about catching us with our guard down – you will lose…and your family will lose.



Before I let you know who wrote those hateful words, let's recap what has been going on for the last year. John McCain was pressured to pick Sarah Palin (a notorious neocon) as a way to appease the extremist base of the GOP, many of whom actually called him a...gasp...liberal! After a the RNC boost, their poll numbers started to tank and their handlers decided it was time to go on the offensive. The rhetoric turned very ugly very quickly. Fear and paranoia were intentionally stoked to energize the conservative base, but soon the Palin rallies started to look more like circus events, so this was ultimately counterproductive to their intended goal of winning the election.

Things seemed to subside a bit following the election, but in December and January, the internet began to get flooded with wingnuts trying to push an ultra-conservative agenda. This was quite a storm, and as a regular user on Digg, the comment sections of story submissions often turned very negative. It almost became my full time job to debunk their baseless accusations.

Then Obama took the oath of office, and the attacks began. In fact, the conservatives even attacked Obama for taking the oath itself! The flames of fear, paranoia, and hatred continued to get stoked in the months that followed, all part of the same GOP playbook that took place in 1993-1994.

This is all part of a scripted plan straight out of their playbook which we saw back in 1993 and 1994. They will obstruct and attack relentlessly in the hopes of souring the public towards both dominant political parties, then the calls for terms limits will come, then they will offer some type of bullshit promise (like they did with the 'contract with America'), hoping to take back congress, effectively hamstringing the president (and by default, derailing the movement for change and reform in this country). It worked in the 90s, and could work again unless we stand strong against it.

Anyways, just like back then, the fears of 'socialism', an Orwellian government, and taking peoples guns away is having the same effect: it is leading to right wing extremism and terrorism on our soil. This only goes to prove that the conservatives care less for the country than they do for their own political fortunes, but hopefully people are more wise today and will see it coming. Either way, it has already taken a toll in 8 acts of domestic terrorism:

Wednesday, January 21 -- the day after the inauguration -- 22-year-old Keith Luke goes on a violent spree in his Boston neighborhood. He rapes and kills one woman, and also kills the sister who tries to help her. He then goes out onto the street and shoots a passing homeless man. Police intercept him on his way to a local synagogue, where he tells them he intended to "kill as many Jews as possible during bingo night." He also says that he was fighting the extinction of the white race, and had stockpiled 200 round of ammunition to that end.

Tuesday, February 10 -- In Belfast, Maine, radioactive "dirty bomb" materials are found in home of James Cummings, who had been shot and killed by his wife after years of domestic violence. Cummings was an admirer of Adolf Hitler, and a large collection of Nazi memorabilia and a filled-out application for the National Socialist Movement were found on the scene.

Thursday, February 26 -- In Miramar Beach, FL, 60-year-old Dannie Baker walks into a neighboring townhouse where 14 Chilean students -- all in the US legally -- are gathered. He fires, killing two and wounding five. Those who know Baker describe him as a mentally ill man obsessed with fear that immigrants are taking over the country.

Sunday, April 5 -- Budding white supremacist and recently discharged veteran Richard Popalowski shoots and kills three police officers following a standoff in Pittsburgh. They were responding to a domestic disturbance call. He believed they had been sent by the Obama Adminstration to take away his guns.

Tuesday, April 28 -- US Army Reservist Joshua Cartwright shoots and kills two sheriff's deputies in Fort Walton Beach, FL. His wife escaped from him after he beat her, and called police from the emergency room. In the incident report, she reported that her husband believed the US Government was conspiring against him, and was severely disturbed that Barack Obama had been elected President.

Wednesday, May 6 -- Stephen P. Morgan of Middletown, CT kills former NYU classmate Johanna Justin-Jinich, whom he had been harassing since at least 2007. A diary found in his belongings included an entry: "I think it's ok to kill Jews and go on a killing spree" and "Kill Johanna. She must Die." Justin-Jinich was Jewish, and the granddaughter of a Holocaust survivor.

Sunday, May 31 -- Dr. George Tiller is shot to death while ushering at his Lutheran church in Wichita, KS. His killer, Scott Roeder, is captured by police within hours. Roeder is found to have ties to several violent right-wing groups, including the Montana Freemen and the Sovereign Citizen movement. He had also been committing acts of vandalism against abortion clinics for years, most recently just days before the assassination.

Wednesday, June 10 -- Well-known anti-Semitic blogger James Wenneker von Brunn walks into the national Holocaust Museum in Washington, DC and opens fire. Two security guards are shot; one is dead and the other still guarded as of this writing. Von Brunn himself was killed in return fire. He had been prominent in Holocaust denier circles for several decades, and considered Holocaust museums to be a crime against white history.



Which brings me to my point: the Tea Parties. Although the original Tea Parties (there were a handful in 2007 and early 2008) were a real libertarian event, the modern Tea Parties have been hijacked by neocons and other Republicans who had no problem with 'borrow and spend' policies of the Bush regime (including domestic espionage, invading a foreign country under false pretenses, torture, etc.). In fact, I would love to see a survey done of the attitudes of those attending the Tea Parties, I'm willing to bet most voted for Bush and support neocon policies (like the drug war). The Tea Parties are NOT a libertarian event anymore, they are a partisan platform in which to attack Obama and fuel more right wing hate.

So who was the 'true tea party patriot' that wrote the quote above? This is a bit of a trick question, because he is not actually part of the Tea Parties going on today, he is the right wing terrorist Timothy McVeigh. His words reflect exactly what is going on with the conservative movement today and why we need to fight back against it. There is already wind that White Supremacists and Anti-Semites Plan to Recruit at July 4 Tea Parties, we can only hope this right wing hate doesn't continue to escalate until another building gets blown up.


*a special word of thanks to http://www.muckmakers.com for the original concept

30 May 2009

My Experiments with the Digg Shout system

Although Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com could probably work some wonders with these numbers, I have documented the success ratio of my shouts for a few months now, and the results are below.

PROCESS
First off, let me explain the selection process used. I am a very active Digg user with ~400 mutual friends (and 1000 fans), 1/4 being active diggers, 1/2 being active commenters, and 1/4 inactive. I received 200-500 shouts from friends daily. From this list and browsing in the upcoming sections, a long list would be recorded with potential stories to share. I did not randomly select these, they were compiled within the realm of progressive stories: political, legalization, environmental protection, LGBT rights, space, health care, science, freedom from religion, world news, workers rights, and a variety of other topics.

I would send out ONE megashout every night, usually around 12-3am EST. Each megashout would have a headlined story and around 5 shared stories below. My own submissions were the minority of stories shared (41% of the headliners, 11% of the shared links). The stories I shared from others were always cited with the submitters hyperlink, a brief description, and the url to the digg comments page. Further, I only shared one person per night, and never 2 nights in a row (to mix it up a bit).

This experiment began in early February and ended just prior to Digg shouts going extinct a few days ago.




INITIAL RESULTS

MISC Factoids
76 Mega-Shouts
424 Total # of stories Shared
5.57 Average Shared per MegaShout
155 Total # Front Paged
36.5 Total % Front Paged
174 Users I shared submits from
30 Users given the Headline












































VARIABLES

I know I was certainly more inclined to give a digg to a story one of my friends submitted than those from other users that they shared with me. Of course, this all depended on the quality of the article, but I suspected the same might be true for my mega-shouts. My hypothesis proved to be in error:



There was a negligable difference between the success ratio of stories that I submitted and those I shared from other users (just a few%). This was not true however, based on how I hyperlinked the shared stories. Under the shouted Headliner, 3+ stories would be copied and pasted (as prev. stated with @username, brief description, url). I ran a little sub-experiment in early April for 7 days where instead of using the link to the digg comments page (http://digg.com/politics/California_s_first_ARRA_project_breaks_gound), I would either use the diggbar link (http://digg.com/d1sSz2) or a tinyurl link (http://tinyurl.com/npkltu). There was a 15% discrepancy between the 2 data sets, clearly displaying that people did not like (or trust) the shortened hyperlinks.




Another notable difference was between the stories that were shared directly and those hyperlinked in the mega-shout (the headliners were twice as likely as the shared ones to hit the front page).





The number of stories per megashout varied from 3-10. One would assume that the more stories included in each megashout would decrease the chance of each one to get someone's digg (and thus their likelihood of hitting the Front Page).

#shout #of %FP

The data set only included 1 megashout with 3 stories and one with 10, only 3 megashouts with 8 stories, and only 4 with 4. This makes it extremely difficult to discern whether this chart reflects a natural tendency or mere chance. Megashouts with 5, 6, or 7 stories were more numerous, but again, one cannot fully ascertain a pattern using this small of a database (and now it's too late to collect more data!).


The receptivity to my shouts is another variable. One would think that people would get sick of getting harassed with daily megashouts, so participation would decline over time. However, the results did not correspond with this premise.


In fact, the results were so variable that it is difficult to draw any conclusions based on the date of the shouts. Again reflecting on the # of shouts vs the % success, there are some blips where causality is suggested, others where there the opposite is true.





CONCLUSION

My experimentation with the Digg shout system proved that using it helped get stories to the front page. It increased the success ratio of some diggers from 20-70%. There was also proof that the old Digg shouts was more successful when not using tinyurl or the diggbar links. There was no discernable difference whether they were my submits or not and not enough data on whether the number of stories shared had any effect on whether people would digg them or not.

Now that the old Digg shout system has gone the way of the dinosaur, people have moved onto Facebook, Twitter, IM, and the old fashioned email. If anyone wants a copy of the data sets or daily records, please email me at badnovenator@gmail.com and I'd be happy to provide them for you. My thanks goes out to every one below who I shared stories from, and especially to everyone who took the time to give my megashouts some support.



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12 April 2009

Tea Bag Parties: Corporate Astroturfing to Derail the Movement for Change





This is starting to get entertaining. The Tea Bag Parties planned for Wednesday, April 15th are starting to get some publicity and thousands of people are likely to turn out for what will be a comical event of what boils down to a 'sore loser' syndrome. The ones pulling the strings behind this are right wing groups protecting the entrenched beltway establishment that has a stranglehold on our system of government and they are determined to stop our president from reforming the broken system.

Fox News has been giving a lot of traction to the Tea Bag Party protests coming up on the 15th, just like they've been giving airtime to ultra-conservative talking points for over a decade in the true spirit of the propaganda network they are. Pravda would be envious. What's behind the Tea Bag Parties? Is this really a spontaneous mass revolt against Barack Obama, or is there something else behind it?


BACKGROUND
The timing of it all is a huge clue as to it's origins. Where were all these protests when (King) George Bush was in charge and why are they suddenly springing up all around the country? It can't be about the ARRA (economic stimulus) because Bush and the Republicans spent trillions of dollars on foreign ventures of destruction and nation building, while Obama is spending money at home to improve its infrastructure and create jobs for working Americans. Further, under Republican rule over the last 30 years, debt has skyrocketed under the Republican mantra called Starving the beast, in essence creating huge deficits (and consequently national debt) via tax cuts for the rich to force the government to cut programs.

Since 1981, fiscal conservatism has meant 'borrow and spend', so why the sudden outrage? Now we're supposed to believe that despite the Republicans doubling the national debt during the Bush years, leaving the Obama administration a $1.3 Trillion deficit, and worse yet, giving the country the Great Recession, we are supposed to believe that 'conservative' economic policy is the answer? No sir. Nobody is buying what they are selling anymore, those days are over.

Although the first 'tea party' appears to be Ron Paul's famous money bomb on December 16, 2007, initiated by Trevor Lymanm where $4.7 million was raised online in 24 hours, this term did not stick. The Tea Party 'movement' of today started with the infamous Santelli "rant". CNBC's Rick Santelli's call for a "tea party" in Chicago next summer was quickly picked up by a website called ChicagoTeaParty.com and spread from there to the Drudge Report and around the net. However, the ChicagoTeaParty.com domain is not new. It was registered last summer by the producer of a right-wing radio show in Chicago (Milt Rosenberg), leading to the conclusion that anti-stimulus protests are corporate front. Not too many people truly believe that a conservative web domain would just happen to be the first to report on this obviously scripted rant. That's too much of a coincidence for even the 22%ers (those still loyal to the Bush/Cheney regime) to believe.

According to Mark Ames & Yasha Levine, "What we discovered is that Santelli's "rant" was not spontaneous as his alleged fans claim, but rather it was a carefully-planned trigger for the anti-Obama campaign. In PR terms, his February 19th call for a "Chicago Tea Party" was the launch event of a carefully organized and sophisticated PR campaign."


ORGANIZATION
From that point on, a coordinated effort has been underway to plan protests across the nation, the first 'big teabagging' to be held on April 15th because it is just before the tax deadline. It comes to light that there are 2 groups central to organizing this whole endeavor: Freedomworks and Progress for America. Stormfront, the white supremacist website has got in on the action too, though their contribution seems to be minor at this point.

The former, Freedomworks is a conservative Washington D.C. organization that specializes in astroturfing. From Wikipedia:
-Astroturfing is...political, advertising, or public relations campaigns seeking to create the impression of being spontaneous "grassroots" behavior, hence the reference to the artificial grass, AstroTurf. The goal of such a campaign is to disguise the efforts of a political or commercial entity as an independent public reaction to some event (something the Soviet Union specialized in). Astroturfing is a form of propaganda whose techniques usually consist of a few people attempting to give the impression that mass numbers of enthusiasts advocate some specific cause.

Freedomworks was originally founded in Citizens for a Sound Economy in 1984, a "conservative political group operating in the United States, whose self-described mission was "to fight for less government, lower taxes, and less regulation." Note, LESS REGULATION. They would "anonymously leverage corporate contributions into debates on public policy" and had close ties to Koch Industries (a Wichita, Kansas corporation that bankrolls right wing causes, such as the Cato Institute think tank and formerly helped form the John Birch Society, who advocates the US withdrawal from the UN).

The other group behind the Tea Party organizing is Progress for America. Again from Wikipedia, "PFA was established in 2001 to support George W. Bush's "agenda for America." The PFA Voter Fund, which was set up in 2004, raised $38 million in support of Bush's 2004 election bid Progress for America, [is] a "friends of the party" organization "operated by Tony Feather, the former political director of the 2000 Bush-Cheney campaign and a close friend of White House political adviser Karl Rove." In 2005, the PFA pushed privatizing social security and abolishing the filibuster in the US Senate as a means of ramming through conservative ideologues into high courts.


OBJECTIVE
So why are so many people going to demonstrate on the 15th? The central themes of the protests are under the guise of economic responsibility, the national debt, and taxation. They can best be summarized by the talking points promoted on such websites as butsasforme, heritage, usnews, indianapolisteaparty.com, and teapartyslogans.com.

Financially responsibility is good theme, something that everyone can get behind. If someone lives a lifestyle outside of their means, like eating at 5-star restaurants on the credit card, that is insanity, and much more indicative of typical fiscal policy for every president since Reagan (except Clinton, who not only balanced the budget, but left a surplus). Are we going deeper into debt at the moment? Hell yes, but the difference is that under Obama, we are making investments that will save us money in the long term, much more akin to using that same credit card to buy a new suit for a better job.

This all stems from the classic Republican transference tactic, whereby they are trying to lay the blame of the Great Recession squarely onto the shoulders of Obama, harnessing popular discontent, and putting the people with the same economic philosophies into power in 2010 that will hamstring any reforms that would put this country back onto the right track. The same thing happened in the run-up to the 1994 mid-terms that saw conservative Republicans sweep both the house and senate, effectively stopping Bill Clinton from doing everything that needed to be done to change the direction of the runaway train of conservative policy.

The same groups that supported the neocons fiscal policy are now behind the Tea Bag Parties, mainly Freedomworks who advocated lower taxes for the rich and less regulation, and Progress for America who pushed for putting Social Security into the stock market. Both of these groups clearly advocate the failed economic policies of the past, and are now behind the Tea Parties. Coincidence? Obviously not. They are using libertarians and disenfranchised citizens as tools and pawns in their scheme to derail the movement for change in a quest to get back in power.


RESPONSE
How does one respond to this? The answer is simple, expose what is going on, fight back, go out and counter-protest. Anyone can go to one of their central organizing websites Tax Day Tea Party and find the planned rallies closest to them. Despite the fact that these people will try to make a stink of things, then obediantly then go pay their taxes, it is important for everyone who wanted to change the country to remain vigilant and active. The corporate lobbyists are not going to go away and their masters will fight to the bitter end to keep the system in place that has made them rich at the expense of most Americans, so we need to make sure our voices are heard as well. More importantly, we need to ensure that this deception and manipulation does not go unnoticed.

It needs to be emphasized that the central theme of counter protests is not to spoil their Tea Bag Parties. They have a right to tea bag, protest, and to speak their minds. As freedom loving citizns of this country, we must afford them the exact same rights that we would like to have as guaranteed by the constitution. For those who choose to show up at counter protests, the objective should be to inform them that they are being used and manipulated by the same right wing organizations that helped double our national debt in the first place.

14 March 2009

The Origins of Obama's Citizenship Conspiracy




Since all of these paranoid conspiracy theories about whether or not Obama is a citizen of the United States, and thus eligible to be President don't seem to be going away, this citizen decided to do some research of his own. What I found was shocking.

For starters, lets review a bit. The eligibility questions actually started with John McCain during the Republican primary. There was ample mudslinging going on between them and someone started a whisper campaign questioning McCain's eligibility to be president as a way to discredit him. Now, rumor and innuendo are one of the central tricks of the trade of the Republican party, and John McCain was born in Panama, but the legality of this issue was fairly obvious. He was born to American citizens on a military base, which is legally considered American (United States of America that is) territory. Thus, the whisper campaign never gained too much traction, but persisted.

Fast forward to a year later, in the heat of the presidential campaign, right wing websites such as the WorldNet Daily (a right wing tabloid specializing in sensationalistic headlines and conspiracy theories) and Stormfront (the central White Supremacist forum board) began having almost daily discussions about the eligibility issue, but not about McCain, about Barack Obama. This whisper campaign gained much more traction, partially due to the time he spent outside of the country when he was growing up and also by parallel rumors that he was a secret muslim (middle name of Hussein), he took his oath on the Koran (that was US Rep. Keith Ellison of Minnesota), and misunderstandings about what is considered a legal document pertaining to birth.

Now, despite the WND continuing their twisting of reality and keeping the flames of paranoia stoked, this conspiracy theory has been thoroughly debunked over and over again. You might remember recently when Wikipedia had to stop edits of it's page on Obama because of conservative graffiti and vandalism on his early life section.
They even have a page devoted to Obama citizenship conspiracy theories. The "birthers" (conspiracy theorists who continue to disregard the evidence and believe he is ineligible to be the POTUS) have been further fueled by the misinformation headquarters conservapedia and have spearheaded an online petition on the WND that supposedly has garnerd 300k signatures (authenticity unverified). Recently, one of the legal agitators named Orly Taintz supposedly discussed the matter with Antonin Scalia and presented that petition to Chief Justice John Roberts at a lecture at the University of Idaho.

Despite the evidence clearly indicating that Barack Obama is a US citizen (you can see the birth certificate at FactCheck.org), the question arises, where exactly did this issue of eligibility transform from one about John McCain to one about Barack Obama? The answer may surprise you.

It comes from a blogger website called 'mean ol'meany' in an article published Saturday, March 01, 2008 titled 'Obama is a Kenyan, But Not Really or IS He?' The catch is, it was satire. That's right, a joke. Like so many runaway rumors that spread across the internet (you can find many of them on the always entertaining snopes), this one started to spread through email chains and whispers until it gained enough traction that an actual controversy began. To dispel rumors like these (and there were hundreds of them), Obama's team utilized the power of the internet and set up a website to debunk the lies at FightTheSmears.

There you have it folks. An entire year of paranoid delusions based on satire. Not surprisingly, these people continue to also disbelieve evolution, climate change, and a host of other reality-based truths, so expect to keep hearing about this, but next time, don't be so quick to give them a pass.

16 December 2008

2008 Election Maps

As you remember, this was my prediction cast 2 weeks prior to the election. I was wrong about North Dakota and Missouri, although I'm willing to bet a recount would have turned MO blue. A big sea of red continues to occupy the middle of our country.

If we display each state with its population as a key to its size, the picture looks a little different, and that big sea of red in the middle shrinks down to size nicely.

Obama made some serious inroads into traditionally red areas. Notice the Great Lakes region, eastern seaboard, Rocky Mountains, and other rural pockets.

campaign donations




The final campaign contribution numbers are in. Obama received $774m compared to $331m for McCain. This is strange in presidential politics in this country, the republicans usually rake in enormous war chests from big corporations and far outspend their rivals (whose contributors are more often the poor and middle class workers of America).

Once we add in what the national committees spent on behalf of each of the respective candidates, we arrive at a total of precisely $1 billion for Obama vs $775 million for McCain, a much slimmer margin. It is currently unknown how much other partisan organizations contributed, but I suspect the difference between the 2 candidates would be even closer.

The Obama campaign was the most brilliant and classy one that I have ever seen (or heard about) in this country. 91% of his donations were under $100, coming from individual donors such as myself. To add sauce to the goose, over 4 MILLION people donated to his campaign, shattering the record and truly highlighting the fact that this a people's movement.

Thank you to everyone who helped to make this possible. Thanks to everyone who donate 5, 10, or 20 dollars during extremely tough financial times in this Bush-created depression. Thanks to all who could not afford to donate, but volunteered instead. Thanks to those who no longer remained silent, talked to their friends, coworkers, neighbors, and relatives to spread the message of hope. Thanks to anyone who had the courage to stand up, fight for whats right, and did their part in taking our country back from the parasites who stole it from us 8 years ago. Finally, thanks to Barack Obama, the man with a vision who had the audacity of hope that inspired millions.

25 October 2008

2008 Election Predictions



Obama/Biden 378 McCain/Palin 160


The results are in! After 8 long years under king george and the fascist neocons, a good, decent, and intelligent man under the banner of democracy, freedom, and fairness will once again become our president: Barrack Obama. This election campaign has been one huge endurance test, and despite the desperate attacks from the republicans, the country has finally had enough of the failed policies of our old leaders. Time for a paradigm shift to something better.

Although Obama will certainly win, it is very difficult to predict by exactly how much. The map above is my personal prediction for how the electoral map will look after all is said and done, but there are a few places where its close enough that we need to look a bit deeper.

1. Montana and North Dakota. ND is leaning Obama, Montana is leaning McCain. However, they could go either way. Everything depends on the final week of campaign messages and how many vote 3rd party (esp. Bob Barr).

2. Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia. With rally crowds exceeding 100,000, Missouri seems fairly certain to go democratic, though this is still a toss up. Indiana looks like it might have finally woken up, although there is a large conservative 'under the radar' vote that is hard to account for. West Virginia must have forgotten how their economy was decimated by outsourcing and republican rule, because they seem to be turning to mccain.

3. Atlantic South. North Carolina is up in the air, but the triangle should be enough to make this red state blue. Florida finally looks like its trending to Obama. Georgia might be a surprise. The polls still have mccain with a 5-7pt edge, but this state could slide into the democratic camp if the republican party keeps making serious mistakes (calls to kill Obama, calling him a terrorist, staging racial attacks, etc.).


As you may recall, back in Oct.'04, I made a failed prediction about the presidential race. US Pres Election 2004 This is the map I predicted:
I am man enough to admit my mistakes, and I was wrong about the 2004 election. I got 48 states right, but New Mexico went to Bush by a few thousand, and Ohio voted republican, although I still blame that on voting irregularities (how many thousands turned away after seeing a 10 hour line to vote in freezing rain?). I may miss a couple states this time around as well, only time will tell. Got a prediction of your own? go HERE to Make Your Own Map.

13 September 2008

Small Town America



Will small town America vote Democrat or republican? That all depends. I was born in a small town, raised in a small town, and spend most of my time in small towns across this country. I find that there are 2 predominant types of people here.

Small Town Type 1: the Democrat (or liberal)




The Democrat is usually the nice, soft spoken neighbor, willing to help out whenever needed, never stirring up trouble, rational and cool headed, honest, non-judgemental, tolerant, and humble. They treat people the way they want to be treated. The democrat has a good, self-deprecating sense of humor and loves a good laugh, but rarely at the expense of someone else. Perhaps most importantly, they look inside and strive to become a better person each day and to make the world a better place.


Small Town Type 1: the Republican (or conservative)




The Republican is the grumpy, loud mouthed neighbor, helping themselves first and foremost, always stirring up trouble, irrational and hot headed, deceitful, quick to make snap judgements, intolerant, and conceited. They use people to get what they want. The republican has a wicked sense of humor, usually only finding humor at someone elses expense. They are selfish, mistrustful, suspicious, and greedy. They are not concerned with self improvement, but rather strike out at others to try to impose their way of thinking upon them.


Now riddle me this..how did small town America, MY America, end up being run by Type 2? It wasn't always like this, and I don't believe for one minute it will stay like this.

12 September 2008

annual update

OK, so its been one hell of a long year without any updates. What can I say? Life gets busy, and reporting on things like this get sidetracked. That doesn't mean there isn't news or commentary, it just means I haven't been keeping up to date.

THE LAST YEAR IN REMEMBRANCE
One year ago today, there were a dozen candidates for both parties vying for their coveted nominations. The only news on the fascist (ie. republican) side was Ron Paul, who spoke his mind, got nothing but boo's during the debates, and almost made me a libertarian (a couple of times). On the democratic (ie. sane) side, a young upstart named Barack Obama was dueling with the innevitable Clinton dynasty, with my prefered candidate John Edwards running a close 3rd.

A year later, it may be a good thing Edwards didn't get the nod after the dirt came out about his affair. Not that anything should dilute his message, but that would have been disaster politically, as the rovian propagandists would have destroyed him publicly during the election. My predictions about the country not being mature enough to elect a woman or a half black man as president might still happen, but I as many others in the unspoken category of the silent majority are doing everything in our power to prevent a 3rd bush term. Obama led a very respectable grassroots campaign against Clinton, who despite her failings, would have made a formidable candidate none the less, and he earned a hard fought nomination.

McCain, who had my respect back in 2000, obviously sold out in '04. I went way out on a limb back then and predicted that he was bowing to the powers that be, the entrenched big business lobbyists that really run Washington, so that he would be the next nominee in the neocon party to be president. My prediction turned out to be true (hate to say I told you so). He is now indistinguishable from King george (bush that is), despite his propaganda about being a maverick.

My working white class voters may be the clincher in this close election. I am a working man, my father was a working man, and if there is one thing life has taught me, its that we cannot let ourselves be fooled or distracted by the corporate propaganda. Working men vote democratic, sell outs vote republican (like too many did during the horrible Reagan years).

McBush and his cohorts have done a fantastic job confusing the real issues with typical rovian style attack politics this election so far, managing to blunt Obamas momentum and keeping his team on the defensive. He hasn't been as sharp in his rebuttals as I had hoped, but I think the times have changed, and the public will come around by election day. Some groups like moveon.org and planned parenthood are trying help out, and everyone needs YOU to step up right now and publically declare your support to changing this country to the better. Now all we need is some debates to contrast the candidates. This time, lets not let the republican candidate get a radio feed from his handlers, and watch how the polls turn democratic.

16 September 2007

Greenspan attacks Bush's financial disaster

The BBC reports that Bush ignored his advice to veto "out-of-control" bills that sent the US deeper into deficit. This severely under reported news story is one of the many huge warts on the ugly face of the policies of King George during his reign as pseudo dictator over this country. The massive defecits have generated a staggering national debt that has now surpassed the 9 TRILLION mark (see the US National Debt Clock for current figures).

If you were the head of a household, and spent beyond your income, paying for things by running up credit card debt, it wouldn't be long before the bank would forclose on your house, take away your car and all your furniture, and leave you destitute and homeless. That is EXACTLY what is happening to our nation! In the insanely despicable act of granting behemouth tax cuts to the rich and large corporations, coupled with out of control military spending, King George has screwed our national economy. Sure things never look too bad when you are still borrowing money to pay for things, giving the false appearance of prosperity, but those debts need to be repayed at some point.

Who will repay the debts the conservatives have given us? Our children? Our grandchildren? What was the dire need to go many trillions of dollars into debt for? Were chinese hordes invading north america? Was there a deadly plague killing millions? Was there a comet coming to destroy the planet? The loss of the world trade center and the initial spending to attack the terrorist infrastructure (which is NOT the failed occupation of Iraq) only add up so far.

In the end, this national financial disaster will haunt the Bush legacy for generations to come. With any luck, it will also quell any archaic notions that linger about the supposed financial misdeeds of 'tax and spend' democrats from back in the 60s and 70s as well. The republicans should forever be remembered as the party that bankrupted our nation to make the rich richer.