16 December 2008

2008 Election Maps

As you remember, this was my prediction cast 2 weeks prior to the election. I was wrong about North Dakota and Missouri, although I'm willing to bet a recount would have turned MO blue. A big sea of red continues to occupy the middle of our country.

If we display each state with its population as a key to its size, the picture looks a little different, and that big sea of red in the middle shrinks down to size nicely.

Obama made some serious inroads into traditionally red areas. Notice the Great Lakes region, eastern seaboard, Rocky Mountains, and other rural pockets.

campaign donations

The final campaign contribution numbers are in. Obama received $774m compared to $331m for McCain. This is strange in presidential politics in this country, the republicans usually rake in enormous war chests from big corporations and far outspend their rivals (whose contributors are more often the poor and middle class workers of America).

Once we add in what the national committees spent on behalf of each of the respective candidates, we arrive at a total of precisely $1 billion for Obama vs $775 million for McCain, a much slimmer margin. It is currently unknown how much other partisan organizations contributed, but I suspect the difference between the 2 candidates would be even closer.

The Obama campaign was the most brilliant and classy one that I have ever seen (or heard about) in this country. 91% of his donations were under $100, coming from individual donors such as myself. To add sauce to the goose, over 4 MILLION people donated to his campaign, shattering the record and truly highlighting the fact that this a people's movement.

Thank you to everyone who helped to make this possible. Thanks to everyone who donate 5, 10, or 20 dollars during extremely tough financial times in this Bush-created depression. Thanks to all who could not afford to donate, but volunteered instead. Thanks to those who no longer remained silent, talked to their friends, coworkers, neighbors, and relatives to spread the message of hope. Thanks to anyone who had the courage to stand up, fight for whats right, and did their part in taking our country back from the parasites who stole it from us 8 years ago. Finally, thanks to Barack Obama, the man with a vision who had the audacity of hope that inspired millions.

25 October 2008

2008 Election Predictions

Obama/Biden 378 McCain/Palin 160

The results are in! After 8 long years under king george and the fascist neocons, a good, decent, and intelligent man under the banner of democracy, freedom, and fairness will once again become our president: Barrack Obama. This election campaign has been one huge endurance test, and despite the desperate attacks from the republicans, the country has finally had enough of the failed policies of our old leaders. Time for a paradigm shift to something better.

Although Obama will certainly win, it is very difficult to predict by exactly how much. The map above is my personal prediction for how the electoral map will look after all is said and done, but there are a few places where its close enough that we need to look a bit deeper.

1. Montana and North Dakota. ND is leaning Obama, Montana is leaning McCain. However, they could go either way. Everything depends on the final week of campaign messages and how many vote 3rd party (esp. Bob Barr).

2. Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia. With rally crowds exceeding 100,000, Missouri seems fairly certain to go democratic, though this is still a toss up. Indiana looks like it might have finally woken up, although there is a large conservative 'under the radar' vote that is hard to account for. West Virginia must have forgotten how their economy was decimated by outsourcing and republican rule, because they seem to be turning to mccain.

3. Atlantic South. North Carolina is up in the air, but the triangle should be enough to make this red state blue. Florida finally looks like its trending to Obama. Georgia might be a surprise. The polls still have mccain with a 5-7pt edge, but this state could slide into the democratic camp if the republican party keeps making serious mistakes (calls to kill Obama, calling him a terrorist, staging racial attacks, etc.).

As you may recall, back in Oct.'04, I made a failed prediction about the presidential race. US Pres Election 2004 This is the map I predicted:
I am man enough to admit my mistakes, and I was wrong about the 2004 election. I got 48 states right, but New Mexico went to Bush by a few thousand, and Ohio voted republican, although I still blame that on voting irregularities (how many thousands turned away after seeing a 10 hour line to vote in freezing rain?). I may miss a couple states this time around as well, only time will tell. Got a prediction of your own? go HERE to Make Your Own Map.

13 September 2008

Small Town America

Will small town America vote Democrat or republican? That all depends. I was born in a small town, raised in a small town, and spend most of my time in small towns across this country. I find that there are 2 predominant types of people here.

Small Town Type 1: the Democrat (or liberal)

The Democrat is usually the nice, soft spoken neighbor, willing to help out whenever needed, never stirring up trouble, rational and cool headed, honest, non-judgemental, tolerant, and humble. They treat people the way they want to be treated. The democrat has a good, self-deprecating sense of humor and loves a good laugh, but rarely at the expense of someone else. Perhaps most importantly, they look inside and strive to become a better person each day and to make the world a better place.

Small Town Type 1: the Republican (or conservative)

The Republican is the grumpy, loud mouthed neighbor, helping themselves first and foremost, always stirring up trouble, irrational and hot headed, deceitful, quick to make snap judgements, intolerant, and conceited. They use people to get what they want. The republican has a wicked sense of humor, usually only finding humor at someone elses expense. They are selfish, mistrustful, suspicious, and greedy. They are not concerned with self improvement, but rather strike out at others to try to impose their way of thinking upon them.

Now riddle me this..how did small town America, MY America, end up being run by Type 2? It wasn't always like this, and I don't believe for one minute it will stay like this.

12 September 2008

annual update

OK, so its been one hell of a long year without any updates. What can I say? Life gets busy, and reporting on things like this get sidetracked. That doesn't mean there isn't news or commentary, it just means I haven't been keeping up to date.

One year ago today, there were a dozen candidates for both parties vying for their coveted nominations. The only news on the fascist (ie. republican) side was Ron Paul, who spoke his mind, got nothing but boo's during the debates, and almost made me a libertarian (a couple of times). On the democratic (ie. sane) side, a young upstart named Barack Obama was dueling with the innevitable Clinton dynasty, with my prefered candidate John Edwards running a close 3rd.

A year later, it may be a good thing Edwards didn't get the nod after the dirt came out about his affair. Not that anything should dilute his message, but that would have been disaster politically, as the rovian propagandists would have destroyed him publicly during the election. My predictions about the country not being mature enough to elect a woman or a half black man as president might still happen, but I as many others in the unspoken category of the silent majority are doing everything in our power to prevent a 3rd bush term. Obama led a very respectable grassroots campaign against Clinton, who despite her failings, would have made a formidable candidate none the less, and he earned a hard fought nomination.

McCain, who had my respect back in 2000, obviously sold out in '04. I went way out on a limb back then and predicted that he was bowing to the powers that be, the entrenched big business lobbyists that really run Washington, so that he would be the next nominee in the neocon party to be president. My prediction turned out to be true (hate to say I told you so). He is now indistinguishable from King george (bush that is), despite his propaganda about being a maverick.

My working white class voters may be the clincher in this close election. I am a working man, my father was a working man, and if there is one thing life has taught me, its that we cannot let ourselves be fooled or distracted by the corporate propaganda. Working men vote democratic, sell outs vote republican (like too many did during the horrible Reagan years).

McBush and his cohorts have done a fantastic job confusing the real issues with typical rovian style attack politics this election so far, managing to blunt Obamas momentum and keeping his team on the defensive. He hasn't been as sharp in his rebuttals as I had hoped, but I think the times have changed, and the public will come around by election day. Some groups like moveon.org and planned parenthood are trying help out, and everyone needs YOU to step up right now and publically declare your support to changing this country to the better. Now all we need is some debates to contrast the candidates. This time, lets not let the republican candidate get a radio feed from his handlers, and watch how the polls turn democratic.